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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 55

Washington Commanders 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to PHI 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-47-Q.Dunbar.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.82 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.03 EP