Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Jets 12

(1:52) 6-C.Schmidt punts 32 yards to NYJ 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 84-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.50 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model