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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 56

New York Jets 12 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to BUF 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate to BUF 17 for 2 yards (20-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.24 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model