Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 21 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 6-C.Schmidt punts 35 yards to NYJ 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 84-K.Raymond MUFFS catch, touched at NYJ 40, and recovers at NYJ 40. 84-K.Raymond to NYJ 42 for 2 yards (58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO -2.07 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.26 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model