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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 1
New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 14
What Actually Happened
(2:06) 15-J.McCown up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.63 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.77 EP
- 39% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.29 EP
KICK
+1.80 EP
- 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
- Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
