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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 75

New York Jets 6 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 4-L.Edwards punts 58 yards to BUF 17, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-B.Tate pushed ob at BUF 36 for 19 yards (53-E.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.15 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model