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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 52

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:38) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +2.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model