4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 34

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 7-C.Catanzaro 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.58 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP