Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 95

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:30) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 49 yards to DAL 46, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer. Dallas' Terrance Williams has an ankle injury; return is questionable.

The Three Options

GO -3.83 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.25 EP
65% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 95, worth -5.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model