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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 42

Dallas Cowboys 16 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(8:34) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to NYG 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.46 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model