Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 55

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 16

(12:47) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.93 EP
71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model