4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 7

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 16

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.79 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 7, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model