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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 3 at the 43

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:16) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to NYG 5, impetus ends at NYG 3, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 17-D.Harris to NYG 6 for 1 yard (35-K.Frazier).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.64 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 43, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP