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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 6 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:52) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 35 yards to NYG 9, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.15 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.62 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP