4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 66

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 6

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to DAL 21, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.81 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP