Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 17 at the 82

New England Patriots 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(4:31) 6-R.Allen punts 54 yards to KC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona. 13-D.Thomas to KC 31 for 3 yards (36-B.King; 49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on KC-51-F.Zombo, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 31.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model