Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 71

New England Patriots 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

(9:06) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to KC 33, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-T.Hill ran ob at KC 40 for 7 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.91 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model