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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 28 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 43 yards to NE 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 23-P.Chung.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.72 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model