Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 49

New England Patriots 17 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(7:14) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to KC 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.07 EP
55% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP

KICK -1.37 EP

27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
73% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model