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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – New England Patriots 17

What Actually Happened

(11:59) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NE 17, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 56, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.42 EP