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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 8

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-S.Gostkowski 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +3.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.63 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 8, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.60 EP