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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 49

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to CIN 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.74 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model