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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 20 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 4-S.Koch punts 36 yards to CIN 41, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson to CIN 42 for 1 yard (88-V.Mayle).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.58 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP