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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 13

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(4:43) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right [99-M.Judon]. {thrown away}

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.21 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model