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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 43

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 20

What Actually Happened

(9:54) 10-K.Huber punts 35 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.54 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model