Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 18 at the 71

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(12:46) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to BAL 35, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 36. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 36 for no gain (81-T.Kroft).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.15 EP
74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model