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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 75

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:43) 10-K.Huber punts 53 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-C.Harris. 12-M.Campanaro to BAL 37 for 15 yards (59-N.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model