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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 4-P.Dawson 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model