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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 30

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (No Huddle) 3-C.Palmer up the middle to DET 28 for 2 yards (40-J.Davis).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.58 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model