Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 18 at the 59

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Detroit Lions 21

(7:18) 2-A.Lee punts 44 yards to DET 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew ran ob at DET 28 for 13 yards (35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.98 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model