Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Detroit Lions 15

(14:29) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to DET 9, Center-46-A.Brewer. 39-J.Agnew to DET 33 for 24 yards (35-E.Penny).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.16 EP
66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 66, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model