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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 51

Detroit Lions 9 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 5-M.Prater punts 30 yards to ARI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-K.Williams. Penalty on DET-54-S.Longa, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting. Penalty on ARI-96-K.Martin, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.09 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model