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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 53

Detroit Lions 9 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(11:39) 5-M.Prater punts 47 yards to ARI 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.89 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP