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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 60

Detroit Lions 6 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:01) 5-M.Prater punts 30 yards to ARI 30, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-54-S.Longa.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 60, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 19, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model