Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Detroit Lions 6

(4:00) 2-A.Lee punts 42 yards to DET 38, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model