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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 54

Detroit Lions 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 5-M.Prater punts 32 yards to ARI 22, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP