Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 64

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0

(1:48) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to NE 9, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 18 for 9 yards (14-E.Weems).

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.37 EP
53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model