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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 15 at the 15

New England Patriots 9 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.28 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT +0.40 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model