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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 54

New England Patriots 3 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(6:04) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at ATL 37 for 17 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model