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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 60

Atlanta Falcons 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to NE 5, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-J.Edelman to NE 10 for 5 yards (29-C.Goodwin; 42-P.DiMarco).

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model