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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:47) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to ATL 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 16 for 1 yard (51-B.Mingo). PENALTY on ATL-55-P.Worrilow, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at ATL 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 66, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 24, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP