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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 76

New England Patriots 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:45) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to ATL 38, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-31-J.Jones. (The Punt Hangtime was 3.88 seconds.)

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.86 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -2.09 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 34, worth -2.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP