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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 15

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(11:23) 4-S.Hauschka 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-J.Ryan.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.20 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 15, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model