Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 29 – Seattle Seahawks 13

(11:26) 5-M.Bosher punts 33 yards to SEA 33, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-91-C.Upshaw.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.18 EP
58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model