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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Atlanta Falcons 12

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 9-J.Ryan punts 60 yards to ATL 1, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-27-N.Thorpe.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.67 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP