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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 17

Atlanta Falcons 9 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 3-M.Bryant 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.58 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.29 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model