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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 45

New England Patriots 24 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(13:07) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to HOU 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.42 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.83 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model