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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 4 at the 28

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 8-N.Novak 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.15 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 38, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model