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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 45

Houston Texans 13 – New England Patriots 24

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 9-S.Lechler punts 35 yards to NE 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model