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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to NE 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +0.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 36, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model